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Time 2020-10-11 20:04:44

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Jay Inslee was a bit off his game on a few issues. Western State Hospital desertification in particular. But he was pretty good overall. Culp was something else. From flirting with conspiracy theories about the wildfires to saying he would have sent the National Guard with guns to the East Precinct protest, Culp was scary. Please don t vote for him. For my previous analysis (on Monday) Vice President Joe Biden had a solid lead over President Donald Trump with an average of 363 to 175 electoral votes. Since then, there have been 52 new polls released. Most are state polls, but we do have a new polls for each of Maine s congressional districts and Nebraska s second congressional district. Now, after 100,000 simulated elections, Biden wins 100,000 times and Trump wins 0 times. Biden received (on average) 366 to Trump s 172 electoral votes. In an election held now, Biden would have a greater than 99.9% probability of winning and Trump would have a less than 0.1% probability of winning. Biden s small bump is pretty meaningless such shifts are normal variation as old polls age out after they are more than a month old and new polls drop into the analyses. Trump has made gains in three states, including a new poll in Arkansas bumping him from a 57% probability of taking the state to a 75% probability of taking the state. Trump cuts into Biden s lead in Maine s 2nd congressional district, where Biden drops from 90% to a 82% probability of taking the state. Finally two new polls in Montana, including a remarkable Trump+13.4 Emerson poll, brings Trump up to a 98% probability of taking that state. Biden made gains in five states. Two new polls gives us a total of eight current polls for Iowa, and Trump s 63% chance has flipped into a 65% chance Biden would take the state today. Biden also gains ground in Nebraska s second congressional district with a new Biden+11 poll joining two other recent polls with Biden leading to boost his chances from 87% to 98%. This district went Republican in 2016 and 2012, but narrowly went for Obama in 2008. Two new Nevada polls give us a total of six in the Silver state, and Biden leads in every one of them. His chances have increased from 98% to 100% probability of winning an election held today. North Carolina is close, but most of the polls are in Biden s favor. There are twenty current polls and Biden leads in 16, Trump in 2, with two ties. Here is what the last month of polling looks like in North Carolina: Ohio is even closer than North Carolina. A new Biden+1 poll gives us eight in all, with Trump leading in three, Biden leading in four, and one tie. The margins are small, and each candidate has a 50% chance of winning an election there today:Here is the long term picture made from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 08-Oct-2019 to 08-Oct-2020, and including polls from the preceding month (FAQ).For an election held today, here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] generated by the simulated elections: [Read more ]Share:TweetEmailPrint4 Comments Wednesday Open Threadby Carl Ballard — Wednesday, 10/7/20, 7:30 am Are you ready for debates tonight? Well tough shit, we re going to have Vice Presidential and gubernatorial debates. I already know who I am voting for, but I will probably tune in. Will Culp manage to sell himself in any way, or if he comes across as awful as his policies. My previous analysis, just over a week ago, showed control of the Senate going to Democrats with, on average, 53 seats going to the Democrats and 47 seats going to the Republicans. After 100,000 simulated elections, Democrats won 97,022 of them, Republicans only won 42 times and there were 2,936 ties. Since then, about 38 new polls have been released.Today, after 100,000 simulated elections, Democrats have a Senate majority 99,919 times, Republicans control the Senate 21 times, and there were 60 ties. In other words, the results for Democrats have improved a bit, with the average number of seats going up by one to 54. Democrats would almost certainly take control of the Senate if the race was held today.This week, we got the first polls in several races, including Tennessee, Oregon, Massachusetts, and the Georgia-2 special election. In fact, that poll is largely responsible for the one-seat bump from last week. Georgia s special election has no primary. Instead numerous candidates will be on the ballot on November 3rd, and a runoff election will be held in the almost certain event that no one candidate takes 50% of the vote. The Civiqs poll conducted heat-to-head contests between different combinations of candidates. At this point it looks like the runoff is between Democrat Raphael Warnock and Republican Senator Kelly Loeffler, who holds the seat by appointment. The poll puts Warnock up over Loeffler 49% to 39%. Of course, this is only one poll, and an unconventional one at that, but it has totally changed my perception of this race, which I assumed would go to the incumbent Republican.Democrats make progress in several other races, as well, including the GA-1 Senate race (from 16% probability last week to 33% probability of winning the state in an election held today), Iowa (45% to 70%) and Montana (30% to 43%). Republicans gained in Kansas (from 50% to 82%). I should note that only a few of the twenty North Carolina polls were taken (or partially taken) after Democrat Cal Cunningham s sexting scandal broke. We ll need more polls to see how that race develops.Here is the distribution of Senate seats from the simulations:* [Read more ]Share:TweetEmailPrint1 Comment Election 2020: The Post Debate Pictureby Darryl — Monday, 10/5/20, 10:24 pm It has just been one week since my previous analysis just before the Debate. But, man, it feels like it has been a year! That analysis had former Vice President Joe Biden leading President Donald Trump by, on average, 377 to 161 electoral votes. Biden won all of the 10,000 simulated elections. We have new insight in the form of 66 new state head-to-head polls. Now, after 100,000 simulated elections, Biden still wins 100,000 times and Trump wins 0 times. Biden received (on average) 363 to Trump s 175 electoral votes, so Biden s lead has shrunk by 14 votes. In an election held now, Biden would have a greater than 99.9% probability of winning and Trump would have a less than 0.1% probability of winning.What are the big changes? First, Trump s chances in Alabama increase from 75% to 100% probability on account of an old mid-August poll being replaced by a current poll with a large sample size from Auburn University. Smaller gains come from Iowa (58% to 63% probability) and Kansas (92% to 99%). The two most important gains are in Ohio, where newer polling take Trump from a 5% to a 54% probability of winning changing Ohio from Blue to Red on our map, and Texas, where the newer polls increase Trump s changes from 63% to 91% chance of taking the state. Finally, in Virginia, a Biden+15% poll drops out leaving only a small Biden+5 poll, raising Trump s chances from less than 1% to 16%. Biden has made some gains, as well. In Georgia, five new polls coming in and three polls aging out have upped Biden s chances of taking the state from 41% to 76%, switching the state from red to blue. A new Trump+5 poll in Mississippi replaces an older Trump +10 poll, dropping Trump s chances from 97% to 87%. Likewise, in Montana, an old poll dropped out leaving behind one smallish poll, so that Trump s chances drop from 98% to 91%. Clearly, for Mississippi and Montana, we badly need some new polls. We have the opposite situation in New Hampshire, where we went from one current poll to four current polls, all with Biden in the lead. Consequently, Trump s chances drop from 33% to 0%. Another big change is in North Carolina, where six old polls age out and three new polls weigh in. Out of 19 current polls, Biden leads in 14 of them, Trump leads in three and there are two ties. These boost Biden s chances from a 69% to 88%.The long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 05-Oct-2019 to 05-Oct-2020, and including polls from the preceding month (FAQ):Back to the analysis for an election held now, here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations: [Read more ]Share:TweetEmailPrint10 Comments Open Thread October 5by Carl Ballard — Monday, 10/5/20, 7:00 am It s not medieval or early modern Europe. You can notice that the leader is sick. And that it s still possibly deadly. Nobody wants the President to die,but jeez, he might be dying. Share:TweetEmailPrint99 Comments Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!by Darryl — Saturday, 10/3/20, 12:05 am Stephen: Lindsey Graham is on the ropes in South Carolina as Republicans struggle in several red state races.John Oliver: The Supreme CourtNow This: What you need to know about the Proud BoysSamantha Bee: How the school choice debate is failing our public schoolsAmericans for Decency: Good shenanigans vs. GOP purges and Трамп distractionsBiden Harris 2020:Trevor reacts to the first Biden-Трамп debateThe Late Show: Who s ready for an old man slap fight?Jimmy Kimmel on the worst debate everJ-L-Cauvin: Трамп reacts to The Rock endorsing Joe BidenReally American: Lindsey for BidenThe Daily Show: Трамп wants mail-in voting to failSeth Meyers: Трамп called for Biden to get drug tested before debateTrevor: Трамп demands pre-debate drug tests The Rock endorses BidenJonathan Mann: If we get ghe votes, he s gonna go:Eleven Films: 95 minutes in Трамп s AmericaThe Late Show: Biden attempts to shut up The DotardSeth Meyers: Трамп lashes out after unhinged debate performanceJ-L-Cauvin: The Dotard defends his debate debacleJimmy Kimmel: Sen. Bernie Sanders on the debateThe Daily Show: What were Трамп and Biden listening to in their debate earpieces?Samantha Bee: The first (and God, not the last??) 2020 presidential “debate”Mark Fiore: Nailed it!act.tv: Kamala Harris on Трамп s refusal to condemn White supremacistsDesi Lydic Foxsplains Biden s earpieceNow This: Fact checking the first debateThe Late Show: The Dotard Трамп, the constant interrupterStephen: Sen. Cory Booker s live reaction to Трамп s frightening message to White supremacistsSongify The News: WE RE ALL DOOMED Трамп vs. Biden featuring Weird Al YankovicJonathan Mann: Would you shut up mn? (2020 debate remix)Seth Meyers: Трамп s debate performance was an embarrassing debacleRobert Reich: The 6 most revealing moments from the presidential debateLauren Mayer: Will you shut up, man? Trevor: Трамп “stands by” White supremacists in off-the-rails debateOur Cartoon President: The first debate goes off the railsStephen: GOP worries they backed the wrong horse as Biden s lead grows following embarrassing debateAmericans for Decency: Donald and debate Welcome to clown townSongbird: A tribute to Ruth Bader GinsburgVice News: Inside Portland s turf war between proud boys and local antifascistsJohn Oliver: Census update.Trevor: Wildfires.AJ+: How Republicans pulled off a massive voter purgeTrainwreck Трамп and His Toy Storm Troopers:Stephen: Sen. Booker says The Dotard s SCOTUS nominee should recuse herself from any ruling involving the electionReally American: Proud Boy ТрампMeidas Touch: Bye Lindsey Lindsey Graham vs. The Dotard ТрампSeth Meyers: Getting to know Amy Coney BarrettRobert Reich: Трамп s tax returns 10 things you need to knowTrevor: Трамп’s tax avoidance and massive debt revealedJ-L-Cauvin: Трамп attacks failing New York Times tax story!!!Stephen: Трамп fails to walk back his troubling endorsement of a violent hate group during first debateDon Winslow Films: #TrumpIsNotABillionaireThe Daily Show: Meet the man who played Трамп during 2016 presidential debate prepMeidas Touch: End Трамп s hateStephen: Трамп s tax returns reveal massive personal debts, tax liabilities and staggering business lossesThe Daily Show: Excuse! That! Crime!Meidas Touch and Bette Midler: You re moving out today:Bruce W. Nelson: I don t want no Donald ТрампReally American: Racist ТрампSeth Meyers: Трамп tax bombshell reveals how the system is riggedAmericans for Decency: Donald and debts Трамп s taxes bombshellJimmy Kimmel: Meidas Touch: Bye RudyThe Late Show: What if Трамп s lies created a magnetic force?Trevor: Трамп nominates Amy Coney Barrett to replace Ruth Bader GinsburgMeidas Touch: Fire Susan Susan Collins betrayed usThe Late Show: Great moments in debate history Nuclear missile worries about Reagan s ageThe Daily Show: The GOP makes it harder for ex-felons to vote in FloridaMrs. Betty Bowers, America s Best Christian: Unpatriotic historyTyphoid Donnie and Other Vectors of Disease, Death, and Decay:Trevor: On Трамп getting COVIDJ-L-Cauvin: Трамп gives a covid update from Walter Reed HospitalNow This: Supercut of The Dotard mocking masksAmericans for Decency: Donald and karma Трамп tests positiveBruce W. Nelson: Трамп tests positiveJonathan Mann: Who gives a guck about Christmas stuff?Jimmy Kimmel: Трамп s COVID-19 diagnosisThe Foundation Singers: VACCINE:Full Frontal: This women’s roller derby league made a better COVID-19 plan than ТрампReally American: COVID caught ТрампJ-L-Cauvin: Трамп reveals Hope Hicks has the covid!!!Meidas Touch: Трамп s lies have consequencesNew York Times: How America bungled the plagueTrevor: Dr. Anthony Fauci When to wear a maskJ-L-Cauvin: Трамп addresses the nation after testing positive for covidRobert Reich: GOP takeover of the Supreme Court What you need to knowRoll Call: Congressional hits and misses of the weekJimmy Kimmel: The week in unnecessary censorship.Trevor: Rev. Al Sharpton How to protest based on tangible goalsLast week s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.Share:TweetEmailPrint117 Comments Friday Open Threadby Carl Ballard — Friday, 10/2/20, 7:39 am As of yesterday, Metro Transit and the Water Taxi are charging fares again. I know the agencies need money. But this, while the pandemic is still raging. I haven t ridden the bus since the start of the pandemic. So I don t know, are people now bunching up at the door? Still and all, if it isn t replaced with something, it won t be good. If not for the pandemic, I wouldn t be too worried about a return of the will the last person to leave Seattle turn out the lights era. The regional economy is more diverse than it was then. But it is the pandemic. And there aren t too many good jobs for people without a college education. My analysis last Wednesday showed former Vice President Joe Biden with a solid lead of 380 to President Donald Trump s 158 electoral votes. There have been 55 new state head-to-head polls to weigh in on this race. Also, I ve corrected a typo in a Florida poll that, combined with other polls, skewed the state slightly toward Biden (see the discussion in the comment thread for more information). Today, after 100,000 simulated elections, Biden wins 100,000 times and Trump wins 0 times. Biden received (on average) 377 to Trump s 161 electoral votes. In an election held now, Biden would have a greater than 99.9% probability of winning and Trump would have a less than 0.1% probability of winning. This shows Trump gaining very slightly. Trump s gains primarily came from 4 states: A big boost in Georgia (from a 15% to a 59% probability) from three polls with Biden ahead that aged out, and one new poll with Trump up by +1%A slight decrease in Biden s chances of winning North Carolina, dropping from 71% down to 69%A slight boost in Trump s chances from 96% to 99% in South CarolinaA big boost in Trump s chances in Texas from 48% to 63%Biden has seen some gains, as well, in five states and two congressional districts:Trump slips from 70% to 56% after the only recent Alaska poll was released. The poll was done by a Democratic PAC polling the Alaska Senate race, so you are right to be a bit skeptical or, at least, want more polling.Trump slips slightly in Iowa from a 63% to a 58% probability of winningTrump slips a bit from 99% to a 92% probability of taking Kansas as two old polls age out and one new poll gives Trump a modest leadIn Maine s 2nd congressional district, a Trump+1.8% poll drops out and a new poll boosts Biden from 86% to a 92% chance of taking its electoral vote. Biden now leads in all five current polls in the district.Nebraska s second congressional district gets a second poll that boosts Biden from a 61% to a 86% probability of taking the districtThree new Nevada polls, including an astonishing Biden+11% poll from Fox News, raises Biden s chances from 75% to 98% of taking the stateIn Ohio, one Trump+5% poll ages out and three new polls, all with Biden in the lead, are released. Biden goes from a 48% to a 63% probability of winning in OhioThe long term trends in this race can be seen from a series of elections simulated every seven days using polls from 28 Sep 2019 to 28 Sep 2020, and including polls from the preceding month (FAQ):Back to the current analysis, here is the distribution of electoral votes [FAQ] from the simulations: [Read more ]Share:TweetEmailPrint8 Comments Election2020: Control of the Senateby Darryl — Monday, 9/28/20, 8:06 pm So wash your hands right now. Share:TweetEmailPrint162 Comments Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza!by Darryl — Saturday, 9/26/20, 12:31 am Trevor: No officers indicted for the shooting of Breonna Taylor.Conan reads a Christmas tale for 2020WaPo: The origins of policing in America.Biden-Harris 2020: J-L Cauvin: Трамп destroys Playboy reporter and will fight election results.Stephen: Biden s social team pounces on Трамп s You ll never see me again promiseFull Frontal: Predicting the Republican s 2020 October surpriseBill Maher: Трамп s not leavingTrevor: How Трамп is planning on winning the election no matter whatJimmy Kimmel: Jimmy Kimmel knows how to get Трамп to leave. Marry him!Francesca Fiorentini: Will anti-Blackness win another election?J-L Cauvin: Трамп attacks Barack Obama s voter registration day messageJonathan Mann: Dotard Трамп is gonna steal the electionSeth Meyers: Трамп refuses to commit to peaceful transition of powerConan: Michelle Obama Every vote absolutely mattersTrevor: The Dotard refuses to guarantee a peaceful transfer of powerJimmy Fallon: Chelsea Clinton calls 2020 the most important election of our lifetimeFull Frontal: Mitt Romney is not a heroBill Maher: Bernie Sanders says, Listen to what Трамп is saying. Jimmy Kimmel: Jimmy Kimmel breaks down Трамп s plan to steal the electionStephen: Трамп wants to undermine your faith in the election so you don t vote him outJ-L Cauvin: Трамп is bribing senior citizens for votes!The Late Show: Worried Трамп won t leave the White House if he loses the election?Liberal Viewer: FAUX News Anchor Trace Gallagher fails live math and geography tests within 3 minutes.Roll Call: Congressional hits and misses of the week.The Dotard Трамп and His Band of Treasonweasels and Despot Wannabes:Mark Fiore: The hypocritical oathJohn Di Domenico: Трамп BLASTS the soup nazi, MELTS DOWN and REFUSES to wear a mask! No mask no soup!Our Cartoon President: Cartoon Трамп gets crate trainedVICE News: The Dotard is obsession with genetic superiority and bloodlinesBruce W. Nelson: F-U-T-R-M-P (Filling Unstructured Time Recording Mangy s Piano):The Late Show: What makes New York City an anarchist jurisdiction?Desi Lydic checks in on her Трамп-obsessed uncle Lou DobbsJimmy Kimmel: Трамп s crazy summerSongBird: Exploding treesStephen: The Dotard Трамп really is America s racist uncle, administration sources confirmNow This: Трамп s first term by the numbersJ-L Cauvin: Trump crushes Obamacare with his America First Healthcare PlanBruce W. Nelson: A salute to men with tiny dixStephen: Not untruthful incompetent Rep. Katie Porter on Трамп officials when they testify before CongressConan: QAnon News Break Santa Claus editionAmericans for Decency: Lying liars lie Ted Snooze, Inc.Vox: How US abortion policy targets the poor.RIP RBG:The Late Show: Lindsey Graham s words used against himConan: Michelle Obama remembers justice Ruth Bader GinsburgTrevor: The inspiring life of Ruth Bader GinsburgJimmy Fallon remembers Ruth Bader GinsburgSamantha Bee: How we can protect the notorious legacy of RBGWaPo: Who is Amy Coney Barrett, Трамп s expected Supreme Court nominee?Seth Meyers: Ways to delay a Supreme Court confirmation voteJ-L Cauvin: The Dotard announces his five finalists to replace Ruth Bader Ginsburg!Stephen: Saying goodbye to Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, an American heroTrevor: The political war over Justice Ginsburg’s Supreme Court seatThe Late Show: The hypocrisy hippo wastes his time calling out Ted CruzJimmy Fallon: So you want to be a Supreme Court Justice?The Foundation Singers: I am Ruth!:Seth Meyers: Трамп and GOP rush to fill Ginsburg s seat despite 2016 hypocrisyRoll Call: Is there enough time to confirm a Supreme Court nominee by November?VICE News: How the Senate power play for RBG s SCOTUS seat could endJ-L Cauvin: Трамп selects Amy Coney Barrett for the Supreme CourtJonathan Mann: Give the people a voice in filling this vacancyTrevor with Dahlia Lithwick: Is the Supreme Court broken?The Late Show: Dumbass detective investigates Трамп s RBG claimBruce W. Nelson: On the passing of Ruth Bader GinsburgSamantha Bee: It’s about time we banned private detention centers Pt., 1Samantha Bee: It’s about time we banned private detention centers Pt., 2The ТрампPlague:The Late Show: Dr. Anthony Fauci hulks out on Rand PaulTrevor: Dr. Anthony Fauci getting politics out of public healthNow This: Dr. Fauci vs. Rand Paul on coronavirus herd immunity Seth Meyers: Трамп says COVID “affects virtually nobody” as death toll hits 200,000The Parody Project: Lazin on a COVID afternoon:Trevor asks Bob Woodward Why he kept Трамп’s coronavirus comments secretLauren Mayer: C.D.C.Stephen: Трамп s disregard for human life has resulted in 200K deaths and CDC guidance that can t be trustedTrevor: The Pandemmy Awards winnersSeth Meyers: Other mail-in voting excusesDulcé Sloan: What is the monetary cost of police brutality? Billions.Conan: Get a healthy dose of reality with RealitrexLast week s Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza can be found here.Share:TweetEmailPrint123962Next Page ADVERTISEMENT Recent HA Brilliance Friday Night Multimedia Extravaganza! Saturday, 10/10/20

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