Stubborn Mule — Obstinately objective

Time 2020-07-20 22:03:45

Web Name: Stubborn Mule — Obstinately objective

WebSite: http://www.stubbornmule.net

ID:29910

Keywords:

Mule,Stubborn,objective,

Description:

The New South Wales Department of Health has now released a breakdown of COVID-19 data by suburb. The website and much of the media reporting of this data displays this in the form of colour-coded maps, highlighting the hotspots. But the data is also available in more detail as part of the government s open data initiative. This provides the opportunity to explore the data in different ways.As an example, the chart below shows the evolution of confirmed COVID-19 cases over time for all postcodes with more than 20 total cases. This shows clearly the impact of the social distancing measures from early April. Many areas have seen no new cases since mid April. The large spot that pushed Caddens near the top of the list is result of the cases in the Anglicare Newmarch aged care nursing home. Note that most of the postcodes in New South Wales include multiple suburbs. Here I have picked a single representative suburb to label the chart.Reportedly, Sweden has not gone into a COVID-19 lockdown, unlike its neighbours. While I am sure this is a deliberate policy choice, it will also serve as an interesting epidemiological experiment to test the effectiveness of different social response measures.It is still early in the course of this international experiment, but a look at the growth in cases intially suggests that Sweden s strategy is not leading to a significantly higher infection rate.However, confirmed cases are difficult to compare across countries as they can be heavily influenced by the testing regimes each country implements How many tests are performed? Do they target particular groups (international travellers, those in contact with confirmed cases or are they driven by symptoms? It is very hard to account for these factors. Instead it is easier to compare the number of deaths. While there can still be differences (Under what circumstances are post-mortem deaths tested for COVID-19? How are co-morbidities accounted for? Are there more older citizens?), I think it is reasonable to expect less significant variation across neighbouring countries.Looking at deaths, Sweden looks far worse than its neighbours. Sweden has approximately the same number of confirmed cases as Norway, but more than five times the number of deaths.Interestingly, Sweden s case count is very close to Australia s, but Australia has to date seen 23 deaths, compared to 239 in Sweden almost 10 times as many. This suggests either that Sweden s confirmed case count is significantly understated it would be understated everywhere but likely more so in Sweden than elsewhere or Sweden is suffering a far higher mortality rate.The experiment is not yet over, but so far Sweden s no lockdown strategy does not seem to be working.

TAGS:Mule Stubborn objective 

<<< Thank you for your visit >>>

charts, economics, technology, politics, the environment and more

Hot Websites