RRH Elections - Elections and Campaigns from the Right Perspective

Time 2020-10-20 06:02:51

Web Name: RRH Elections - Elections and Campaigns from the Right Perspective

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Today we kick off our comprehensive general election preview series. Today we cover Mayoral races in cities over 200K.Part 1 (Monday, October 19) MayorsPart 2 (Tuesday, October 20) Row OfficersPart 3 (Wednesday, October 21) Governors MiscellanyPart 4 (Monday, October 26) Eastern House RacesPart 5 (Tuesday, October 27) Central House RacesPart 6 (Wednesday, October 28) Western House RacesPart 7 (Thursday, October 29) Senate RacesIn New Zealand, Labour won a landslide re-election with almost 50% of the vote, and will be able to form a majority government without a coalition partner for the first time in recent memory. In Bolivia, the Socialist Party candidate Luis Acre appears to have won a majority of the vote per the exit polls, and is almost guaranteed to secure victory in the first round without a runoff, though the official tally won t come for a few days. Our comprehensive General Election Preview series kicks off at noon today with coverage of Mayoral races! Now, onto the news:Biden/Emails: Fox News has apparently verified at least one of the emails received from Hunter Biden s Laptop from a source also on the email, which appeared to claim that Hunter Biden was taking bribes in order to get someone not formally named but implied to be his father to take action on behalf of a Ukrainian Businessman in regards to a Chinese energy company. The source is still anonymous for now and the Biden campaign, while admitting that Joe Biden might have met with the Businessman in question, is flatly denying that any improper activity took place. Given how the rest of the media isn t touching this story with a 50-foot-pole, I doubt anything short of someone actually coming forward under oath to directly testify to the email s veracity is going to give this story legs outside of right-wing media.Census/Redistricting: The Trump Administration s Lawsuit to bar Illegal Immigrants from being counted in the US Census has been fast-tracked to the Supreme Court, and they will hear arguments on it starting November 30th. Naturally this has huge implications for how Congressional seats are reapportioned, but also how lines are drawn inside individual states, as illegal immigrants tend to be concentrated in urban areas generally represented by Democrats. California for example, is believed to have an illegal immigration population large enough to where excluding them from the census count would cost the state 2-3 congressional districts.Debate Moderators: The moderator for the 3rd presidential debate, Kristen Welker, has a fairly similar background to Chris Scully in terms of supporting Democrats, and recently worked in the Obama White House. She was also famously caught on a hot-mike telling Clinton s Communications Director what questions she was going to ask Clinton in her post-debate interview back in 2016. Trump is already taking to twitter to complain about her, Scully, and the whole debate process.Florida Hispanics: This Politico piece dives into what is one of the few uncontested bright spots for Trump s polling numbers Florida Hispanics. Trump is polling much better with Florida Hispanics than he did even in 2016, and has made up ground with Cubans who swung hard to Obama in 2008 and 2012 and gave Trump disappointing numbers in 2016. This is generally attributed to these voters strong dislike of socialism, and a swell of American Patriotism in the community against what is perceived as Democrat s moving towards that direction.Trafalgar: Robert Cahaly, the lead pollster at Trafalgar polling, has stated that he thinks Trump is at around 270 electoral votes right now which is a dramatically different result from what most other pollsters are showing. Cahaly is basing this on Trafalgar s Social Desirability Bias methodology for conducting their polls in an attempt to try to account for a hypothetical aversion by Trump supporters to answering polls honestly. This is why Trafalgar polls show consistently better numbers for Trump than basically anyone else. Cahaly goes into depth with his methodology in an interview in the link, and even if you think his methodology is bogus, its worth a look just to see what *would* have to be true in order for Trump to pull out an election-night surprise win.UT-4: Here s a story you don t hear often this cycle a GOP challenger is out-raising an incumbent Democrat Congressman by a significant amount. Burgess Owens, one of the more unusual GOP candidates this cycle running for what was the Mia Love seat before she lost in 2018 to now-congressman Ben McAdams, has raised $2.5 Million for this suburban Salt Lake City seat, around $1 Million more than McAdams did over the same period. It s not clear if this is just McAdams being a bad fundraiser or the Democrats punting on this seat, but given the tidal wave of Democratic $$$ this year this is a bit of a surprise result.Anchorage-Mayor: In the aftermath of one of this year s weirder political scandals that resulted in Anchorage s Mayor resigning, the City Assembly chose Austin Quinn-Davidson to take over as acting mayor. It is actually unclear how long she can serve as Acting Mayor, since while the succession is clear it is not immediately obvious whether or not a special election has to be called or if she can continue to serve until the next regularly-scheduled election in June 2021.Ballot Mishaps: As a reminder of how painfully slapped-together the vote-by-mail election has been in places, a California group has alleged that up to 400,000 ballots have been sent out to people who either moved out-of-state or died as a result of poor voter-roll purging. Given California s relatively lax laws in terms of verifying how a completed ballot gets from a voter to the official tally, there is room for a significant amount of voter fraud if this allegation is true, though it is unclear where they got the 400,000 number from exactly. In a similar vein, Pennsylvania has had to reject almost 400,000 vote-by-mail requests from people who are already signed up to receive vote-by-mail ballots after voting by mail in the primary earlier this year, and this has caused such a high volume of calls to election offices that they can t answer them as fast as they are coming in. The election lawsuits this year are going to get really ugly.MI-Voting: A Michigan Court of Appeals has overturned a lower court s ruling stating that votes received after the closing of the polls can still be counted and that a version of Ballot Harvesting that allowed 3rd parties to deliver absentee and VBM votes to polls was legal. The 3-0 decision is widely seen as a strong rebuke of the judge who granted the initial injunction for circumventing the normal legislative process and arbitrarily changing Michigan s voting laws less than a month ahead of the election.NC-Early Vote: Here s a site to check who s voted early in North Carolina. The TL;DR is that Democrats have returned about twice as many ballots as Republicans so far, with districts 2,4, 11 and 12 leading the state.SC-Election-Officer: A South Carolina Election Chair has resigned his position after him and his wife were caught on camera defacing Trump campaign signs.Brazil: A Brazilian Senator has been caught with money in his underwear. Yes, you read that sentence correctly Brazilian Senator Chico Rodrigues had his home raided by police over the weekend as part of a corruption probe, and they managed to find about $6,000 on his person, including hundreds of dollars (in Brazilian currency) stuffed inside his underwear. Rodrigues has been temporarily suspended from the Senate and has resigned as deputy leader of the Pro-Bolsonaro faction in that body. The whole endeavor has been particularly embarrassing for Bolsonaro, who announced a few days ago that he had eradicated corruption from the Brazilian government and was shutting down the government s anti-corruption task force.Ice Cube: The California Gangsta Rapper most famous for writing the song F*** the Police in the 1980s, has taken a lot of heat recently after admitting to advising the Trump administration on his Contract with Black America policy plan. Ice Cube defended himself by saying that the Trump administration reached out to him for advice and that he gave his honest opinion on the administration s existing Platinum Plan for Black America, and that they made adjustments to it based on his feedback whereas the Biden campaign basically ignored him. He stated: I m not playing no more of these political games, we re not part of a team … so I m going to whoever s in power and I m going to speak to them about [black] problems, specifically , and that this was a part of his long-term disillusionment with the Democratic Party s failure to provide a better life for Black Americans. This is remarkably frank approach for someone who released a song 2 years ago titled Arrest the President .Safe DLikely DLean DTossupLean RLikely RSafe RDE (Coons)IL (Durbin)MA (Markey)NH (Shaheen)NJ (Booker)OR (Merkley)RI (Reed)VA (Warner)MN (Smith)NM (OPEN)AZ (McSally)CO (Gardner)IA (Ernst)ME (Collins)MI (Peters)NC (Tillis)AK (Sullivan)GA-L (Loeffler)GA-P (Perdue)KS (OPEN)MT (Daines)SC (Graham)AL (Jones)TX (Cornyn)AR (Cotton)ID (Risch)KY (McConnell)LA (Cassidy)MS (Hyde-Smith)NE (Sasse)OK (Inhofe)SD (Rounds)TN (OPEN)WV (Capito)WY (OPEN)RRH Elections has made the following 8 changes to our Senate Rankings since our last update in September, all in Democrats favor:Alaska Lean R from Likely R || Iowa Lean D from Tossup || Kansas Lean R from Likely R || Maine Lean D from Tossup || New Hampshire Safe D from Likely D || North Carolina Lean D from Tossup || South Carolina Lean R from Likely R || Texas Likely R from Safe R.With Tilts, these changes mean RRH Elections is currently projecting a net shift in Senate seats of D+4.Welcome to the Weekend! Remember to always pick up your laptop from the computer repair shop! Our newest Senate Rankings will come tomorrow, and we will begin our General Election Preview series on Monday.If you were going to make a political donation this weekend that you felt would do the most good and get the most bang for the buck who would you give to?What is your favorite political ad so far this year?Which down ballot race are we all sleeping on this year? What will be the biggest surprise result on election day?

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