Survival Podcast

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Episode-2689- 12 Critical Skills and Knowledge for the Coming Years [ 1:35:30 ] Play Now | Play in Popup | DownloadSo recently I began a series of articles on 8 Mega Trend that are leading the US into extreme flux and likely recession or even depression.  The good news is I feel there will be tremendous opportunities as this occurs for people who have their heads on right, are prepared and are skilled in sufficient areas to capitalize the opportunities we will find in our future.In fact I plan a second series of articles on that subject when the first 8 are complete.  Given that I am a solutions guy I figured I would get ahead of the game today and discuss the skills, mindset and knowledge you are going to want to have at your disposal in what promised to be the largest decade of flux any living person has ever seen.Join Me Today to Discuss Reminder Unloose the Goose is coming this weekThe skills and knowledge and actions I think will be vital in coming yearsGrowing foodCooking and storing foodBuilding, design, construction and estimating skillsCrypto skills, currency, communications, networkingStatistical analysis, critical thinking and researchNutritional research and planningExercise and fitnessProperty evaluation and real estate skillsAll walks and types of entrepreneurship and side hustleTrouble shooting and problem solving/systems thinkingRemote working, telecommuting and the skills for the jobs that are idea for thisTechnology especially skills that involve coding, 3d printing, automation, etc.Every day I bring you an item on Amazon that I personally use or has been purchased by many members of the audience and I have researched enough to recommend.Today’s TSP Amazon Item of the day is General Hydroponics Rapid Rooter Grow Plugs.  This year I began experiments in hydroponics and these plugs have been the absolute easy button.  For instance these tomato plants were grown from seed in just 25 days, they even have blossoms on them already.  I have been growing vegetables since the early 80s when I was a little kid in my Grandfathers garden.  I have never seen anything like this, I am sure my GrandPa would have called it sorcery !As you all know I am pretty new to Hydroponic Growing but now I am developing a full scale indoor vertical farm for home use, that will grow at least 25 plants to full harvest size a week.  This new system will use a blend of deep water hydro and Kratky.Two things will remain the absolute same though.  One, I will use Barrina Grow Lights in it.  Two I will use General Hydroponics Rapid Rooter Grow Plugs.  When I started there were tons of options, other pre made grow plugs, some say jiffy pots work good and cost less, rock wool, LECA, etc.  One product though had the most positive things said by newbies and the least negative, you guessed it General Hydroponics Rapid Rooter Grow Plugs.Let me say I think long term I will find some option that is more economical.  At 15 bucks a 50 pack they are about 30 cents a piece.  Which really is not expensive when you think about what a head or organic lettuce or a baby bok choy sells for at the market.  If I were growing 5,000 plants a week in a commercial operation sure it would add up.  I figure for home scale production the cost is not minuscule but it is minimal overall.  Also when starting peppers, tomatoes, egg plant, etc for spring it is almost not worth considering when most plants like that sell for 3 bucks or more a piece at box stores.In the end here is the deal, I am in building mode with projects right now.  The seed starting one, the indoor farm this week and two outdoor systems are coming too in my green house and aviary remodels.  I want to form a baseline of performance with as few variables as I can, and these damn things work and work like mad.  The roots grow so insane in just a couple weeks that I am forced to modify the dang net cups just to get the transplants out as you see in this video.So it isn t that rock wool isn t lower in cost, it is that in side by side comparisons I have seen rapid rooter just do better for more people.  It isn t that LECA isn t reusable and better long term, it is that in side by side comparisons I have seen rapid rooter just do better for more people, especially new people to the hobby.  See where I am going here?  It appears (to me anyway) that rapid rooters allow for less accurate PH and fertilizer calculations.  Sure when you get everything absolutely perfect all of it works, and I am not saying you can just dump things with no testing and have these work, I am saying these will perform better than most other options even if you are not perfect.I am simply using Texas Tomato Food, rain water and getting my PPM to about 650 for starts.  Letting it go as high as 1100 as evaporation happens and that is it.  As I am using rain water I didn t even test PH which everyone screams you must do.  Our spa PH kit says the PH is under 7, how much though I don t know it only goes down to 7.  I am going to get a PH test solution in place and get more accurate but as you can see, this all works and works beautifully!If you want to see a full play list of the project so far, you can find it here.  Also hold on tight because the new indoor farm is getting built this week as soon as Lowes gets my damn shelf in.  Also tune in today, big announcement coming where some of you can come see the new indoor hydro farm hands on next month.Otherwise though if you plan to start playing with Hydro, try General Hydroponics Rapid Rooter Grow Plugs.  Let them form your baseline and if you can find a lower cost or reusable media long term, go for it.  But if you are new to anything make your life as easy as possible.  Frankly at 15 bucks for a 50 pack, I consider this a very affordable way to do just that.Remember you can always find all of our reviews at TspAz.comP.S. This is one of those items where multi packs have STUPID, I repeat STUPID pricing.  Buying a two pack is way more expensive than buying quantity two .  Just be aware of that.  Here is a full play list of the Kratky Seed System so far.This is the second article in this series.  The main concept to remember as you move through it is that each of these articles focuses on one mega trend .  These trends were already in motion before CoVid appeared, what has now happened is due to CoVid they have been accelerated and what was going to take about a decade to play out, will now most likely play out in 2-3 years.For more on this please read Part One of this series if you have not done so yet as it will provide context which I have chosen to not repeat in this article.  The entire series as it is released can be found here.   Also as you will soon see each of these trends are interrelated and each magnifies the effects of the others.Today I want to discuss with you how changes in primary and secondary education will drastically impact our economy in the coming years.  For those not familiar with these terms, primary and secondary education are commonly referred to as K-12 education in the U.S.  Right now the media is only paying attention to post secondary education as far as economic impacts go, and that only tacitlyI wanted to begin with K-12 education because while there is a lot of talk about kids going back to school.  Will it happen?  Is it safe, etc.?  No one is really discussing the economic impact this is going to have nor does anyone seem to understand the sheer size of the coming exodus from the public school system.  Remember a common theme I have asked you to think of in this series is the test drive .  To my knowledge no one other than myself is using this analogy yet, as to CoVid impacts.  Simply put, if a company say Ford wants to increase car sales all marketing is directed at getting people to test drive Ford cars.  Get enough test drives you get more sales.Well that is what has happened with about 55 million students in the primary and secondary education sectors in the US.  Many parents or like my wife and I, grandparents, were thrust into essentially home schooling in March-April of 2020.  The first week or two was a nightmare for many.  This is not surprising as we all had no plan, no time to prepare and zero experience with the concept.  We also had to jump in near the end of the school year, so we lacked a clear starting point.Social media erupted with frazzled parents and virtue signaling posts about how underpaid teachers were.  I understood the sentiment, my wife and I struggled with my grandson who was pretty willfully defiant about getting his work done.  He d do it but take all day long to do so.  Then I had a talk with him (he s 9 by the way) that went like this.Buddy you are blowing a huge opportunity here.   I looked at the amount of actual work you need to do.  I am pretty sure you can do it in 2-2.5 hours a day at the most.  And you could even do two days worth in one day.  That would give you almost 3 more full days to be totally free.  To run around on our property.  To play.  To learn what you want vs. what they make you learn.  To work with me on projects.  You could be free but I guess you don t want to be. I know some readers will be triggered by the fact that I would put that much on a poor little 9 year old. Get over it, we don t do teacup kids at the Spirko house.  Two days later in the garage he said to my wife in a small voice, grandma I just want to be free .  The next day he tore into his work and by then we had gotten organized with a schedule and set up with the computer for him.  We had a work area set up and had conditioned his little sister (age 4) to leave her brother alone during school time .I watched a 9 year old achieve the ability to be educated and be truly free in a single week. (Stop here, do not let the impact of that last sentence pass over you without impact.  Read it one more time before you continue and think about it please.) He learned plenty from the school work but the real lesson was the lesson of being an entrepreneur.  Schools teach hourly thinking, living by a clock.  Be on time, punch in, get a bell or whistle for breaks and lunch, stay till the end of the day.  Every kid who has ever been in school sat and watched the clock in classes for the last 5 minutes doing literally NOTHING because you don t leave till the bell rings.  My grandson like many children just got a lesson in thinking like an entrepreneur, do a good job, as swiftly as possible and be judged more on production than attendance.Now I am a unique guy with a unique perspective so I am sure other parents and grandparents used other tactics to adapt but what ever they did for most it worked.  Two to three weeks into this test drive all the frantic posts on social media vanished.  Parents have now had a test drive of what their children look like learning outside the confines of a government school.  And they like it, a lot.  How much?  Well, back in May long before fears we would not reopen were really considered the Washington Policy Center conducted a survey.  The conclusion was that More parents are considering pulling their children out of the public schools. The poll shows 40 percent of parents are more likely to pursue homeschooling or online school after COVID lockdowns end. Just two weeks ago my estimate was that we would have about 2.5 5 million new home schoolers in 2020 even when schools open back up.  I based it on the test drive conversion being 5-10%.  I am now upping that estimate to as high as 15 million over the next two years.  I do a daily podcast with 250,000 listeners, that is a good sample size.  The shear number of emails I have received recently and comments on social media stating that my kids are never going back has been massive.  I have been forecasting the demise of the current education system as a mega trend for a while but the acceleration caused by CoVid is shocking even to me.  Even in my personal relationships, I have recently had parents I know, whom I never thought would home school tell me that they are switching.The reasons are obvious, first you got the test drive effect.  Parents have seen positive changes with children and had relationships improve, behavior improve, etc.  It is no longer a theory.  Once they got organized they too saw kids doing 8-9 hours of school work in about two hours.  They then started asking, what the F are they doing with my kids for the other 6 hours and then why are they coming home with 2-4 hours of home work .This is now practical experience, not a theory.  Additionally, the idiotic standards schools are talking about like only having school three days a week, expecting kids to wear masks all day long and never get within 6 feet of each other are simply not practical.  They are however, pushing even more parents into saying no you are not going to do that to my child .Add to it the schools are now begging parents who won t send Johnny and Susie back to choose virtual school as their home school option.  My grandson s school was just so kind as to tell us we have the option to use their Virtual School or enroll for physical attendance.  Oh, how kind of them, it is optional .  Well it has been optional since 1994.  For 26 years now Texas parents have had what amounts to unlimited options as to how they educate their K-12 children.On June 15, 1994, after a nine-year court battle, the Texas Supreme Court in TEA v. Leeper issued a 9-0 decision guaranteeing the right of Texas parents to teach their children at home without fear of prosecution.Let me be clear about what that means.  Since 1994 the only thing Texas parents have been required to do to home school is, fill out a piece of paper that says they are doing it.  They also must state they are teaching the required core subjects, nothing more.  They do not report to the state, they don t provide a curriculum outline.  They have 100% total control as to how they provide an education. Since 1989 the state has had zero say in the matter.The government in essence is now telling citizens that they now have the option to do something they have had an undeniable right to for over 25 years.  It is clear to me they have entered the bargaining phase of the five stages of grief.  Bargaining is step 3, step 4 is depression and 5 is acceptance.Virtual School is just the state s school online and it comes with a lot of invasive oversight and I am sure as that attempt at control grows that will only cause more parents to fully exit the system.  This can for a time prop up a dying system and justify teacher head counts.  However it cannot prop up 10s of thousands of multi million dollar buildings and facilities.  Nor can it stop parents from exploring the unlimited options they have for the education of their children.Aggravating this issue for the state, the existing home school community (about 2 million strong) knows that the state s virtual school is likely the worst option you can chose for your children.  New home education minded parents soon find there are dozens or companies competing for their business.  They turn to social media and join a few of the thousands of existing groups for home schoolers.  They find very welcoming and helpful folks who are not just willing to help, they want to help.Through a couple we know we found Acellus Academy and we are going that way as it is the best fully secular program we found for our goals.  But there are literally tons of options.  This is going to suck even more away from the public system.  People like choices and tend to make the best one for themselves for any given need if they have the option.  You do this every day with everything you choose to purchase from food to furniture.  Anyone who looks in earnest will find very little reason to choose to bring the state s system into their home.  And they will quickly find Johnny and Suzie can still go to college and that families doing this send a far larger percentage of successful kids to college then the state s system.Oh friends, it gets worse!  Given this test drive started a few months before summer break the crutch of day care for your kids (for many not all), has been broken too.  By the time schools open (if they open) parents will have had their children out of school for about 6 months.  Whatever you need to do to make having kids out of school work for you has been done after 6 months time.Oh, and what group of students do you think will be the first to exist the system?  They will be students with involved parents who are self motivated to get work done.  Translation is they will be the best students the system has.  The ones propping up their vaulted test scores.  Additionally, they will be more often than not the children of higher income parents.I spent a ton of time on explaining the coming exodus, did it help you see the economic impact that is coming?Here we go, first we have teacher employment.  There are 3.2 million teachers in primary and secondary sectors of education in the US.  We often cite Walmart as the largest single employer in the nation but they employ only 2.2 million, many who are low paid and part time.  Despite all the claims about being underpaid, teaching jobs come with good benefits and with salaries that are higher than many other professionals in our nation.  I estimate at least a third or about 1 million of these people won t have a job in 2-4 years time.On top of it, think of how many people are employed in this system as everything from maintenance workers, to administrators, to mechanics, to bus drivers, along with many other jobs in this system.  One thing I can say for drivers and mechanics is at least they have a skill they can market, to a degree anyway outside the system.  While the media keeps telling you all teachers are heroes most have never worked 5 minutes in the private sector.  You are talking a million people, many upper middle aged people who thought they had to rob a post office to get fired, out of a job.They will find it very hard to find jobs.  I know 50 year olds tossed out by corporate America that are very skilled and they have a hard time.  Imagine a 52 year old who has taught 4th grade for 20 years who looses that fat retirement (at least a big part of it) who is out trying to replace a job that pays 60-80 thousand a year, with full benefits who has never held another job.  Good luck.  This is not a value judgment on the person it is a statement of fact about employment especially during a recession or perhaps the depression we are heading into.Now let s think about the trickle down effect.  There are 10s of 1000s of companies that primarily exist to support the education industry, cut that by at minimum a third.  There are 10s of thousands more that make a lot of their revenue from the education segment.  I know one guy who runs a multi million dollar company, most of his revenue is from building football stadiums for High Schools and installing fields for them in Texas.  The computer and network industries do a huge portion of their business in schools and there are tons of other industries that support this system.  Then you have a trickle down effect as all these sectors get cut, every store, every restaurant, every single consumer business in said school district looses business.Now let s tie back to the first trend real estate.  Remember as that many people are already moving away from larger markets.   It is important to note that this big drop in property values had already been forecasted by experts in 2019 before anyone knew what Covid was.  That further cuts school spending and further pulls down the education sector.  Property values in these large markets are already dropping so even those that stay are going to protest taxes and either win or move out in final protest.  And those teachers who we are always told are underpaid, well they are going to migrate too.  Call them underpaid if you want but they clearly can afford to live at least close to the schools they teach at.  Those that loose their jobs will be forced to move, further dropping the tax base.And just like the first factor and all the others we will cover in this series, this is a mega trend that was already happening.  In the past 20 years home schooling grew explosively compared to the increase in student population.  CoVid has simply accelerated this trend.  Once again we see a mega trend accelerated by an economic crisis, not an economic crisis caused by some other event.This one is going to be hard for many to accept even as they see it happening in front of them.  We call that cognitive dissonance.  Our current education model has been with us since the 1880s and in almost it s exact form since the 1920s.  While that is a great argument for changing it, it is also shows the danger here.  This system is now a 700 billion dollar market.  We are talking well over a half a trillion dollars in a market that has been a mandated de-facto monopoly for more than a century largely ending.And this is not going to be replaced by a private sector that charges more or the same amount of money.  Rather online private education is dramatically less then the cost of public education.   So it is not going to be a shift in spending, rather a massive cut in spending.  You can buy a top notch education from the private sector for about 1,000 dollars a year, there are many options that are less or even free.  States spend an average of 12,000 dollars per student a year in the US.  This is the case in really good schools and in really terrible ones.  This can only exist inside a phony system driven by tax payer funds, the force of law and a mass delusion that it is all necessary.Well, CoVid gave 55 million students and their parents that all important test drive and it totally destroyed the delusion that this system is necessary for at least 10% of those who were thrust into it.  Trust me, Covid has opened a vast black hole that will never shrink and only grow from here.  Again it was a mega trend in progress, slated to gut the public education system by 2030 anyway.Once again CoVid is killing the dying and I don t mean people.Note If you want to better understand this issue consider listing to my recent podcast, Episode-2688- The Coming Home School Tsunami and its Economic Impact and if you want to be far more resilient in adapting to an increasingly volatile future consider subscribing to my daily podcast here.  Long time listeners will tell you that nothing currently happening is surprising to them.  We have about a quarter of a million subscribers are a two time winner of the podcast of the year award and have spawned thousands of businesses, projects and communities so we must be doing something right. Episode-2688- The Coming Home School Tsunami and its Economic Impact [ 1:33:21 ] Play Now | Play in Popup | DownloadThis show is a must listen.  I don t care if you will never home school, don t have kids, will never have kids, already home school.  It does not matter this is one of 8 specific mega trends that are about to dramatically impact the US economic system and put us into a flux no living person has any reference point for.Trust me when I tell you that term tsunami is not an over reach.  Yes I know you know a lot of people who can t wait to send their kids back to school.  I know many of you also are going to send them back, some of you want to, some of you feel you can t do otherwise.  I want to say upfront today, nothign I say is meant to insult, attack or put down anyone for what they choose to do about education.There will be three main parts of today s show though Part One Why you know it is happening and it will only grow from herePart Two The reasons you really should be part of it, if there is anyway you canPart Three The massive economic fallout that this is going to cause if even 5% do itJust consider this, there are about 55 million students in the US in secondary and primary education in the US.  And almost every parent just got to test drive home education for the first time.  If 10% of those families switch it is an exodus of about 5.5 million students from an already declining system.Join Me Today to Discuss Why this is a modern survival topicIt may be a cliche but children are the futureThe economic impact alone is hugeThis is a mega trend with far reaching implicationsThis is happening, the only question is how much and how fastThe direct feedback I have received already is pretty massiveI have already been notified of some schools closing permanentlyIn the past decade student population grew by 2% and homeschool grew by 25%Never discount the power of a test drive Most kids have now been home for almost 6 months, what ever you needed to do you have done itThe reopening guidance is flatly child abuse, it is also impracticalThe majority of students moving away will come from the top 25% of students by performance, income and parental involvementGovernment schools are already using home school curriculum, lessons and materialsHome schoolers have no problem getting into college and do better at finishing itNo one size fits all system can do as well as you at educating your childrenTeaching is really guiding learning which can t be done in a conventional classroomYour child deserves freedomThe system is going to continue to get worse and that will accelerate from hereYou only think this limits you but it frees you as well, embrace total freedomIt will dilute the tax bases of many cities and countiesAs many as 1/3rd of teachers will be laid off by 2024, most will have terrible job prospectsMany others employed in the system will be cut, administrators, facilities people, mechanics, etc.This will have trickle down economic effects for all businesses where it happensPlease consider that this sector is a 640 billion dollar market, more than a half a trillion dollars is at stakeThis is a good thing but the addict is about to loose access to his drugs, withdrawal is gonna suckWhy are republicans so in a rush to send your kids back to the failing liberal run school system?Have you ever asked a teacher what was wrong with the system then asked why they don t try to change it?If you don t think you can do this, are you sure you can t or are you letting fear control you?Are you stuck in cognitive dissonance? (a story of my wife and her conversation with Sue Laprise)Do you really think you will be alone in this, because you will only be alone if you choose to be?Do you fear social interaction and have you really thought about that?What is more important than your child, their freedom, their ability to learn and their ability to choose?Do you really think you can t do better than the state s monopoly driven system?If the average home schooler can complete there work in 2.5 hours, what do they do with your kids for the other six hours and why do they come home with home work?One spouse incomes due to job loss due to greater economic issuesMany will finally do the math and see a low income job is often a net lossMany affluent families home school, scholarships of various kinds will abound very soonMore options will be created let me tell you about Acellus AcademyCo-ops will explodeThe system will feed on itself and become a black hole for the government systemThis is the first in a series of articles on why I feel in the next few months a pending crash of the US and much of the global economic system, will become our obvious future to even the most casual observer.  I can not precisely time the when but anyone who really looks at trends can see the whys and the whats clearly.  These articles will also not be long deep academic dives into these problems, they will be short, common sense looks at what was already going to happen and how our over reaction to Covid-19 has accelerated it.And you know what, you don t even have to agree with me that our response to CoVid is an over reaction, you can think it was the right thing or even that we should have locked down harder, it won t change what those actions have set in motion.I want to start out by telling you each factor in this series was already a mega trend.  We begin today with real estate but there are many other trends we will discuss in future articles.  I have been discussing each of these trends for several years on my daily podcast.  I ve stated up until this year that the decade from 2020-2030 would be the the biggest decade of flux that any living person would ever see.  Each of the mega trends in this series was already set to drastically shape this decade.  The thing CoVid has done is accelerate them all.  I now foresee about 85-90% of the shift that was going to take us 10 years, occurring in 2-3.These shifts were already going to create a decade of extreme flux but we were going to have 10 years to adjust.  While many people were going to lose jobs and get hurt the best analogy I can give you is this.  We were going to get a direct hit by a Cat3 hurricane, now we are getting a really big, really nasty Cat5 and it is going to hit at high tide and come ashore slowly.So here is why real estate is going to lead this cascade of economic flux and why it will hurt so bad.  Let s get the first part out of the way, it is pretty simple.  The single largest store of real wealth in the US is real estate.  Technically stocks are larger but we all know stock values are far more subjective.  Real estate is REAL PROPERTY, dirt and buildings.  Tangible assets.  For most Americans who own homes they are the fall back, if I get old and run out of money I will sell the house or get one of those reverse mortgage things Magnum PI is always talkin about .So when you get a real estate collapse everything else falls with it.  Credit dries up, people get stuck in homes, people get under water, people get evicted, credit is destroyed and it keeps going.  The chief cause of the 08-09 recession (which long time listeners can tell you I called long before it started) was real estate.This crash will be worse though a lot worse.  It is first aggravated by the recession we are now in, yes in.  We are in a recession now, the beginning of them is always pretty mild.  Millions are jobless, many of those jobs are not coming back, ever.  Moratoriums on evictions have protected renters for a time, they are going to expire and landlords are going into default on their loans anyway.  The foreclosures will come next, all of this will look a lot like 2008-11.It gets worse though when you add the mega trend.  That mega trend is two fold, it is a migration out of big cities and a move to remote working which is accelerating the first part of the trend.  On top of this is the demographic that most GenX and Boomers still think of as dullard college students living on avocado toast and expensive coffee.  Of course I am talking about the Millennials.  But folks the average millennial is now in their late 20s to mid 30s with the oldest now having hit the ripe old age of 38!These kids are no longer kids, they are rapidly heading for middle age, the biological clocks are ticking.  Many are actually very well paid and they have adapted to this shift of remote work far better than GenX and let s face it Boomers are either already retired or ill equipped to adapt to it.Now though this series I want you to keep the concept of test drive in mind.  If I want to sell you a car the best thing I can do is get you to come drive it.  Well millions of workers just got a 4 month long test drive on remote working.  Let me add so did thousands of employers.  All the fears that workers would just fuck off all day and not get work done are gone.  Those that did that simply get fired and were likely fucking off at the office all the time anyway.  Remote work made it clear who the slackers really were, the problem became a solution.Again this trend was in play, it was going to reach a critical mass about 2024-2026, now it is going to hit it, well, now.  And this feeds the migration pattern out of the city.  Let me add these millennials are now having kids, getting married, etc.  That cool night life in LA or NYC, etc. is no longer what they need.  They want a safe street for Billy and Suzy to ride a bike on, etc.  This has always been the case but now it is different.  Why move 25 minutes out of the city, pay stupid high taxes, risk riots, walk past homeless people shitting in the street and be left unprotected by law enforcement when you do not have to?The US is a massive nation, millions of homes and lots exist outside of the coastal cities and what always really held people in them was jobs.  You can claim it is life style but let s be honest people in general do not retire and move to such cities do they?  People in general (there are always exceptions) do not want giant city life.  Most want something in the spectrum of small town to mid sized city living.  Well guess what if I can enter data, analyze data, do customer support, run a sales force, etc., from my own home in San Francisco, I can do it from a much nicer and less expensive home in say Tennessee or central Florida.Now I am not talking about everyone, it does not have to be everyone but last I checked about 13% of those working on site in January of 2020 are now working remote.  That is an instant mega trend and many are never going back to on site work.  Now we are already seeing the initial exodus as leases age out people are making this move in droves.  As soon as the employer green lights keeping the remote work permanent a Uhaul is rented and they are leaving.This all in the end must cascade!  If you doubt this, go to Uhaul.com and price a one way truck from LA to Dallas, then price it one way from Dallas to LA, it will tell you all you need to know. Uhaul knows that if that truck goes to Texas from California, it is never coming back.Here is how it plays out.  Millions of workers leave the giant cities and surrounding suburbs.  As they can work remotely they do not go to one region they spread out.  Many simply select a climate and area they like, many move back to the area they grew up in to be closer to family.  The key is no one region benefits in a big way.   Rents plummet (they already are google, declining rent if you doubt me) and land lords can t fill all vacancies.  Soon the rent they can get is negative against the debt they must service.  Selling their properties gets harder.As others wish to leave they find their houses are worth far less then they have been told they are worth.  They either sell for what they can get, are stranded, get foreclosed on or abandon the mortgage.  Driving down all the surrounding suburban prices down even further.  Next the companies start selling or trying to sub lease office space but in a decline well their accountants say, just abandon it, we can deal with it via laws and accounting.  Our sub corp owns the property anyway, we will just declare it bankrupt .Let me be clear you don t need an 80% drop in population to destroy prices, nor 50%, nor 20%, frankly 3-5% is bad and 8-10% is catastrophic.  That level of lack of demand is devastating in the best markets.  But these markets were fake good .  Bluntly that shitty 1 bedroom apartment was never ever worth 2100 dollars a month.  That dinged up old 3/2 home was never worth 750K.  It was a phony inflated value all along and in our hearts we always knew it.  We just denied it because it was expedient to do so.  Now the real value shows, boom!On top of it, who is leaving?  Your most economically productive demographics.  Young professionals, middle aged professionals, entrepreneurs and employers.  No government or state is equipped to handle this.  All government programs are built on eternal growth, it is insane but it is true at the same time.  A city like San Francisco, LA, Chicago, NYC, any big city is devastated not only by a drop in population they can t even thrive if populations are level.  Every program, every retirement program, every single thing they do is essentially a ponzi scheme, relying on the ability to take in more tax next year than this year.Now the bust really comes.  Tax revenues fall like a rock, real property prices fall, those that stay protest their taxes and when property values fall this much they win.  Cities and counties that don t accept this and refuse to adjust assessments down find residents join the migration.  If they can t sell at a loss they mail a letter to the bank and a letter to the city telling them to choke on it and leave.  It is like a giant octopus eating its own legs.And this time NOTHING can stop it, because it is a mega trend accelerated by an economic crisis, not an economic crisis caused by some other event.  And no GenZ is not moving in to take their place, not anytime soon anyway.  Why would they?  First jobs will be harder to come by in this new world as you will see with future articles in this series.  Next they are broke, far more so then the millennials ever claimed to be.  Next all the high tech type employers are moving to remote work and cutting facilities cost.Lastly, if you live in a smaller area and feel insulated, I agree that you are to a degree but don t get too comfortable.  We are talking long term high unemployment here and many other mega trends quickly on the way.  To be totally clear and blunt, I am saying they are very quickly on the way.  Real estate in the US is like a woven tapestry, you pull a few threads and shit gets bad everywhere.  May be less so in the center but everything takes a hit.  Don t think there can be a recession or possibly a depression, in almost every major US city and it won t effect you in some fly over state, it just doesn t work that way.So my advice is save money and be prepared to get by with less.  I know you want more than that, but it is the advice my grandparents who lived though the great depression gave me as a kid, I always followed it and it has always been enough.  If you are new around here start listening to my podcast, we get much deeper into resilient life style design on it.The good news is opportunities will abound, but take your time don t run out and buy things too quickly let this play out a while, because it will be here a while.  Bluntly you want to be fat with cash in the coming years and low on debt.  Fortunes were made in the depth of the great depression, they will be made this time as well.More articles will follow, they will be a lot shorter as this one laid the ground work.  If you refer someone to a future article they may need to read this one first.  I know some of you will doubt this, it is hard to accept, but I promise you if you investigate my claims about these trends they are not even hard to confirm.  I said about 6 weeks ago that this migration and drop in real estate value was coming.  I then went on vacation for about three weeks.  What I have come back to is every major news source discussing falling rents and people leaving the cities.  They are third page stories (in the digital sense, as you have to search for them to find them) but they will soon be on your television nightly news in earnest.This is all as clear as a sunny day, the only reason many will struggle to see it is all eyes are on Covid for now.  Yet as I have been saying for 4 months on the air, CoVid is killing the dying, and I don t mean people. Every day I bring you an item on Amazon that I personally use or has been purchased by many members of the audience and I have researched enough to recommend.Today s TSP Amazon Item of the day is the Bug-A-Salt 2.0 Insect Eradication Gun. I decided it was time for something that was just fun for an Item of the Day.  And this thing is fun.  Here is how it works, you put a bit of salt in it.  Not fancy kosher or sea salt, plain very fine table salt.  You cock it, and find a fly, flip off the safety and BAM!  Dead fly!Range is about 2-3 feet for effective killing, which is pretty easy to get in range of on a fly.  Is this a practical tool?  In some ways yes it is.  You know when a fly is up in top of a window and you just can t smack it in a recessed area, well now, BAM! Dead fly.Or you know that one fly that torments you and you just can t get a crack at him.  There ain t no hunting regulation about baiting flies boy.  Put out a bit of scrap, hide by the fridge and when he comes BAM! Dead fly.Okay but seriously it is just fun to blast the shit out of a fly with salt.  This thing is inherently safe fun as well.  About the only real injury it might cause if if you shot someone or yourself in the face so don t do that.  Salt is not a aerodynamic substance so at about 4 feet it is pretty much done and done.  It only shots a tiny amount per shot.  What I am saying is you can set any responsible child or adult loose with it and not worry too much.So check out the Bug-A-Salt 2.0 Insect Eradication Gun today and have some good, clean, salty fun.  And hey if you keep chickens, consider giving some lightly salted flies to them after your hunting trips.Remember you can always find all of our reviews at TspAz.com Episode-2687- The Expert Council Show for 6-19-20 [ 1:35:19 ] Play Now | Play in Popup | DownloadToday it s time for the expert council show. To ask a question for a show like this, just send an email to me at jack at thesurvivalpodcast.com with TSPC Expert in the subject line.Today on The Survival Podcast, the expert council answers questions on investing, keto diet, RVs, rebuilding engines, power tools, a looming recession and more.In the body of your email first tell me the council member your question is for. Second ask your question concisely in one to two sentences maximum. Third any and all details after that. This is the formula to give you the best chance of getting on the air.I do what I can to get as many of your questions as possible on the air but can t always get to all of them. Our council is made of a wide variety of experts in everything from the tactical to the practical and everything in between.To get more information on our Expert Council visit our Meet the Expert Council Page to learn more about them and their specific areas of expertise.Join Me Today As Our Experts Discuss Quote of the day The distraction is only dangerous if it works. ~ Jack SpirkoIs it time to get out of the markets John PuglianoUsing the keto diet to put on muscle vs. lose weight Dr. Ken BerryAll season living in an RV, and getting the right RV from the start Gary CollinsRebuilding diesel motors from the ground up Derek BonpietroAn update on expanding foam and a very cool new pole saw from DeWalt Tim Tool Man CookShit is about to get real bad economically the three indicators are education, real estate and retail. 10 years of flux will come in 2-3.  JackResources for today’s show…Spirko2020.com Don t Vote for MeJoin the Members BrigadeJoin Our ForumWalking To FreedomTspAz.com support TSP when you shop on OnlineTSP Android AppTSP iPhone AppDewalt 15 Foot Reach Pole Saw for $149Same Saw with One Battery and a Charger for $214Stand Rascal FlattsWebsites of the Expert Council MembersDr. Berry.comHome Made WonderlustAffordable DC GeneratorsHack My SolarMT KnivesLiving Free in TennesseeA Bee Friendly CompanyInvestable WealthPermies.comThe Simple Life NowGeoffLawton.comDarbySimpson.com Whole Systems DesignDoom and BloomHaloBySue.comHackMySolarRemember to comment, chime in and tell us your thoughts, this podcast is one man’s opinion, not a lecture or sermon. Also please enter our listener appreciation contest and help spread the word about our show. Also remember you can call in your questions and comments to 866-65-THINK (866-658-4465) and you might hear yourself on the air.Join the MSB TodayWant Every Episode of TSP Ever Produced?Remember in addition to discounts to over 40 vendors who supply stuff you are likely buying anyway, tons of free ebooks and video content, MSB Members also get every edition of The Survival Podcast ever produced in convenient zip files in blocks of 24. More info on the MSB can be found here.Every day I bring you an item on Amazon that I personally use or has been purchased by many members of the audience and I have researched enough to recommend.Today s TSP Amazon Item of the day is J.A. Henckels Original Version Steak Knives.  I have owned two sets of these for at least 10 years and they still go through a one inch thick sirloin like it is soft butter.  I finally got around to reviewing them today because they are on sale for 19.95 a set, 43% off the regular price of 35 bucks.To me these are the best value in steak knives on the market.  No they are not 200 dollar a piece custom knives, but that is not what you want from a steak knife.  Here is what I am looking for in a steak knife I do not want to have to sharpen it, it should have serrations that will lastI want a high quality handle that will not loosen or degrade over years of useI want a lifetime warranty, from a solid company because I know I will likely never use itI want something built to handle the abuse of a dishwasher even though I won t use a dishwasherI want stainless steel, this is a steak knife I am not going to be starting fires with itI want it to look nice, I want a guest to enjoy using itI don t want to spend a ton of money, this is a utility tool, not a display itemAgain I have owed two sets of these for well past a decade.  I don t know exactly how long but it predates TSP and that means it is more than 12 years.  There are a few negative reviews and I have to say I don t know what these people are talking about claiming that this knife does not cut well.One blathered on about carrots, well it is not a chef knife or a pairing knife, it is not for prepping vegetables it is for cutting cooked meat.  Not slicing up raw veg or parting our raw full cuts of beef.  I d like to see one of these people draw this dull knife across one of their fingers on camera honestly.Again this is a steak knife and I guess just as some in American no longer comprehend how to use a shovel (we have all seen this have we not) many don t know how to use a knife.  A serrated knife cuts with a sawing motion, back and forth, it is basically a tiny meat saw.  I don t know if these idiots are pushing the damn thing threw like a clever or what.  What I do know is these knives work exactly as designed.  I can t imagine a person who can t cut a steak with one of these being capable of operating literally any form of a tool without assistance and adult supervision.  They likely need corks on their forks!Anyway again they are on sale for 19.99 right now.  If you need a damn good set of knives, are capable or operating simple tools and don t want to spend a fortune on them, these are the ones to get and now is a great time to get them.  So check out the J.A. Henckels Original Version Steak Knives today. Odds are a decade from now they will still be serving you well.Remember you can always find all of our reviews at TspAz.com Episode-2686- Time for the CoVid Hysteria to End [ 1:14:24 ] Play Now | Play in Popup | DownloadTime for the hysteria to end?  But are not cases surging, Texas hospitals over loaded, Sweden s now at black plague death levels and all the Karen s are cowering in TP forts?Mix of truth, hype and bullshit there folks and today I am going to try to cut though a lot of it.  I am going to say this, many times my sources I provide are impeccable but today I am only going to provide a few.  I am sick of doing homework for people.  I will simply say I will be clear as I can today about when I am presenting a fact, vs. an opinion.  When I claim a fact, I welcome anyone to attempt to disprove it, do so an I will publicly make a correction.  I don t expect to need to do that, but I stand willing.Every claim I make as a fact is indeed something I know to be true, not think but know.  Many are actually well known facts but people are choosing to ignore them.  Suffice to say if you want to challenge any of my claims do so with sources or I won t bother to respond.  I am not going to for instance cite a source to prove a claim like yellow and blue make green , nor will I cite a source for instance when I say that even though we have a flu vaccine there are an estimated 50 million plus cases of it every year in America.Join Me Today to Discuss A quick update on my vacation time in FloridaI am now on Parler, why you may want to check it out Parlay with MeWhat I do to help prevent or mitigate a potential covid infection this is what I do, not a recommendation or a health claim.  Never exceed recommended safe doses and check with your doctor for any contraindications of any other supplement or medication you take.  You should really listen to this segment of the podcast before doing any of this.  Some of this is nice to add, some I consider vital for CoVid, but again this is all my opinion and what I do for myself, nothing more, I am not a doctor or a health care professional. Quercetin 500mg twice a day a brand I would useZinc 50mg a day in two doses with quercetin a brand I would useGreen Tea Extract one time a day in the AM after a meal with Quercetin and Zinc a brand I would useVitamin D3 morning and evening a brand I would useVitamin C 1000mg three times a day a brand I would useA Good Multi a brand I would useB-Complex a brand I would useWhy I really recommend a consult with Dr. Steven Lewis at Green Wisdom HeathWhat I would do if I got or suspected I had CoVidStay away from peopleGet at least and hour of sun a dayUse HCQ, Zpack and Zinc Zelenko ProtocolUp some supplements especially D and CGo to the Hospital if I needed toIf I don t die going on with lifeWhy I call CoVid a cold and why that is true, and why it doesn t mean there is nothing to worry aboutHow bad the hysteria is, and a tale of conversion disorderCoVid Karen and a Snow Flake Gets CoVidWhy this will hit every major metro area, last 4-6 weeks when it does and fade out, but EVERY ONEWhy NYC, etc. are now seeing very little CoVidHow this happens with other viruses many times every year or two but you don t hear much about itAn Inconvenient Truth about Texas CoVid Hospital Numbers Proof of thisWhy you must look at 7 day averages not individual days for trend dataThe real moving of the goal posts, flatten the curve, save lives, still serious even if mild, now asymptomatic people have lung damageYes it is exploding in the Hispanic community in some areas almost all new cases are Hispanics, here is the politically incorrect reason whyIn deaths per million in the US Florida is #25 Texas is #39The top 5 in deaths per million are NJ, NY, CT, MA, RI in that order and why it mattersSorry doubters Sweden is a huge success Sweden WoldmeterNever believe a single word China says about this ever again, EVERThe WHO says CoVid may not even be an epidemic yet in the USTwo lessons from ItalyLock downs don t stop it, they barely slow it down, once the spike comes you have 6 weeks to deal with it no matter what you doCoVid self corrects over time as it moves though a population LinkWhy I say many screeching about protecting others are simply virtue signaling and more concerned about themselvesHow masks work, their limitations, their usefulness and when they are nothing more than ass covering by the stateWhy you should be somewhat cautious and at the same time largely unconcernedWhat to do if your objection is but I am worried about my insert beloved relative here Why this will take time to wrap up in the US but will honestly be over sooner than most people thinkWhy I will not change my view on this if I get CoVid, if someone I love does, etc. (facts and principle over preference)No I have not moved the goal posts I have accepted data and new information, the media and many others should give it a shotWhy this is the last I will say on this for a while and why I am going back to getting shit doneResources for today’s show…Follow Life With Jack on InstagramTSP Facebook GroupJoin the Members BrigadeJoin Our ForumTspAz.comA Snowflake Gets CoVidCDC Says CoVid in the US may Soon No Longer be an EpidemicDeaths vs. Cases and CoVid Media SpinYou Ain t Seen Nothin Yet BTORemember to comment, chime in and tell us your thoughts, this podcast is one man’s opinion, not a lecture or sermon. Also please enter our listener appreciation contest and help spread the word about our show. Also remember you can call in your questions and comments to 866-65-THINK (866-658-4465) and you might hear yourself on the air.Join the MSB TodayWant Every Episode of TSP Ever Produced?Remember in addition to discounts to over 40 vendors who supply stuff you are likely buying anyway, tons of free ebooks and video content, MSB Members also get every edition of The Survival Podcast ever produced in convenient zip files in blocks of 24. More info on the MSB can be found here.I have never been one to just run out and join the latest social media platform.  I do most of my stuff on facebook, not because I like facebook, at all, but because that is where most of my people seem to want to interact with me.Parler is marketed as a free speech version of twitter, and it seems to be, but that is also not why I decided to give it a shot.   Here is why I am on Parler and why you may want to come parley with me and others there. I know I have been shadow banned for years on Twitter.  Only my most dedicated people there seem to see my posts many seem to have directly visited my feed and interacted enough to over ride the shadow ban.  It has been a few years but my growth on Twitter died, even with almost 15K followers most of my stuff is barely seen, I can see this in the stats.  I actually really like the twitter format but they have been directly purging people and shadow banning for a long time.  This will only get worse, I can t see putting any more effort into the platform.  So I will post stuff there but not put much effort into it.  This is different from Facebook where though I am sure the TSP page is shadowbanned the group and my personal page are not.Unlike MeWe which I really have tried to get something going on Parler has a slew of big names and large news outlets on it.  I have to say on some levels Parler can be a right wing echo chamber, but tell me Twitter is not a left wing echo chamber.  At least on Parler people are not shut down, censored, etc. at least for now.  The future we all know holds no guarantees.  Anyway I found Parler when someone posted a screen shot of a Ron Paul post.  I realized I had not seen a  tweet from Paul forever so I figured I d check it out.  I think (I don t know) there is enough horse power in names on Parler to make it a success.I like a lot about Parler, the interface is similar enough to twitter that you don t need to learn it but it seems to have more features.  The character count is a full 1,000 words which is enough for full thoughts yet keeps any post brief.  Does pics fine.  It short it works well technically.  Frankly so does MeWe but again unlike MeWe it seems bigger names are adopting and driving things on Parler.So far with a whopping 71, like just 71 followers on Parler my posts are getting almost as much interaction as I get on twitter with about 15K followers.  Yea really!  Um f-u twitter!So I will give it a shot and I am going to be posting some really cool stuff that I won t post anywhere else to give it a real chance.  It may flame out like MeWe but you miss 100% of the shots you don t take.  As to the right wing echo chamber concept.  First I think that is over blown.  Yea all the right wing news sources are there, but what do you expect many have been shadow banned or out right banned.  Frankly I am glad they are there, they bring uses and we need users to make any platform run.The other side though is if you want anarcho, agorist, libertarian, etc. voices, show up and speak, be heard.  At least it seems we will be able to be heard, have discussions, etc.bUt wHaT iF pArLeR sTaRts aCtiNg LiKe fAcEbOOk?Oh bugger off!  What if your aunt had balls, she d be your uncle.  In truth the answer is it will hurt them, people will leave and may be some day someone will do it right.Anyway if you want to interact with me join Parler and then look me up here.P.S. Yes I am aware of some claims Parler is already banning leftists.  I think they are people that got banned on purpose, mostly deserving it, I will explain why on air today.

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